Quantum computers promise to create a new wave of global innovation that rivals the advent of classic computers, the Internet and artificial intelligence. Unlike classical machines, quantum computers utilize the principles of quantum mechanics to process information in a fundamentally different way. You can tackle certain tasks that are difficult or impossible with traditional systems.
Just like in the early days of computing, quantum computing hardware today is often large and temperamental. Although there are limited real applications, there is considerable excitement about what will happen next. In the healthcare field, potential impacts are important. From drug discovery and precision medicine to epidemiology and public health. Many initiatives in the technology and healthcare sector are investigating how Quantum Computing can tackle specific problems more efficiently than classical computers, such as protein folding and computational biology.
The healthcare industry is likely to be the most affected by quantum, but it is likely that it is seeing more disruptions at an earlier stage than other sectors. In contrast, areas like cybersecurity are often highlighted as vulnerable because they can destroy Quantum Computing's widely used encryption methods, but they are less likely to have an immediate impact as the level of quantum hardware needed to pose a real threat is still years away. In healthcare, hybrid quantum classic approaches have already shown to be promising in drug discovery and drug repositioning, offering practical advantages even today's loud, intermediate scale (NISQ) quantum devices.
Chip Wars and Quantum Computers
Advanced technology export control aims to prevent strategic competitors from acquiring tools and knowledge in areas that are deemed important to national security and economic leadership. In September 2024, the US Department of Commerce announced export controls for several emerging technologies, including quantum computers and items related to production and research and development. Similar controls have been adopted by US allies, including the Netherlands, the UK, France, Spain, Australia and Japan.
These controls must be contextualized by two major geopolitical forces today. First, the US (and its allies) are strategic competition with China, especially in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Therefore, quantum computing management can be seen as a continuation of US policies to constrain China's technological rise and maintain the strategic advantage of key industries.
Second, the weakening of international cooperation mechanisms, such as the placement of Wasenar – the multilateral export control regime designed to prevent the expansion of sensitive technologies – is undermined by geopolitical tensions, particularly following the Russian infringement of Ukraine. As multilateral cooperation weakens, countries are increasingly turning to smaller, less formal groups to set export rules. This could introduce regulatory enforcement challenges and industrial compliance challenges.
The form and content of export control threatens the development and regulation of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, or perhaps international fragmentation. This is especially important for quantum computing, as the knowledge ecosystem and supply chain are deeply international, including between Chinese and Western institutions.
What are the restrictions?
The new export controls apply to advanced quantum computers and related hardware, software, materials, technologies and documents. Export control does not completely ban trade, but introduces a licensing regime. Export, retransport or transfer of these items generally requires government approval. The licensing exception facilitates trade with countries that employ similar controls, but relocation to other destinations, including China, faces serious scrutiny.
In the United States, sharing technology with foreigners within the United States is usually restricted as being “considered an export.” For now, this first round quantum export rule is unlikely to be the last – has stopped imposes these full restrictions on foreigners, requiring only records management by entities covered by the rules (essentially universities and private companies). However, some commentators suggest that future controls could have a direct impact on foreign workers and could have an impact on international cooperation.
While discussions between implementing countries are confidential, it is clear that regulators are aiming to protect quantum computers and related items of the cutting edge or future in quantum computing development. This reflects the desire not to overload organizations involved in systems that are already well understood and accessible across the international research community. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that rules cover a wide spectrum of quantum computing stacks and supply chains, from raw materials to components, software to finished products.
What are the risks and challenges of these export controls?
Current – Future export controls may unintentionally hinder desirable international collaborations on quantum computing. Limiting the flow of knowledge, talent and technology across borders, export control promotes the risks of promoting siloed research ecosystems, even among countries that are otherwise strategic allies. This risk is heightened by the above fragmentation in global export control policies.
Quantum computing also poses specific regulatory and enforcement challenges. For example, a new quantum computing breakthrough could circumvent regulatory grasps. Moreover, unlike physical components, quantum software and algorithms or other intellectual property are particularly difficult to enforce because they are easily shared across boundaries. These challenges have led stakeholders to question whether such controls are strategically effective or whether there is a risk of creating a compliance burden that delays innovation without any meaningful benefits.
What are the export control opportunities?
While there are challenges in regulating dynamic, emerging technologies like quantum computing, flipside is the ability to form an ecosystem early on export control and before technology and expertise expands. Furthermore, the large physical footprint of many types of quantum computing hardware makes such systems easier to monitor and implement by regulators than, for example, semiconductors.
Furthermore, today's fragmented regulatory ecosystem and quantum supply chains have strategic opportunities. Some commentators argue that traditional multilateral export control regimes, such as the Wassenaar arrangement, are not suitable for fast mobile technologies such as Quantum. Finding consensus is slow or impossible, and implementations in participating countries are quite different. In contrast, recent replication approaches bring together smaller groups of closer-interested like-minded states that allow for more closely aligned and more agile and harmonious rulemaking. This model could provide more stringent security adjustments with greater freedom for Allied collaboration when compared to incumbent Cold War era multilateral rules.
Conclusion
Given its disruptive potential, the healthcare industry must pay attention to the implications of quantum policies for innovation and access. How the quantum computing industry develops deeply shaping who benefits and where those benefits are felt. Recent export restrictions by the US and its allies play a key role in this trajectory, reflecting fragmented global quantum value chains and signaling technological and strategic uncertainties and opportunities ahead of time.
Note: The text is based on ideas developed in the chapter in the book, co-authored by Peter Alexander Earls Davis, Mateo Avoy, and Timominsen, entitled “Regulatory Challenges and Opportunities for Export Control in Quantum Computing.” (Springer, forecast for the second half of 2025/early 2026). This chapter is currently available as preprint (open access).
This post is part of a digital symposium called International Bioscience Innovation, Law and Ethics. Click here to read related posts.
Acknowledgements: This blog post was made possible through the generous support of the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF) through grants from the Scientifically Independent Collaborative Research Program of Bioscience Innovation Law (Grant No. NNF23SA0087056).
About the author
