Brexit’s impact on the NHS nursing workforce led to 1,485 additional patient deaths per year across hospitals in England, according to a new study.
Researchers from the University of Surrey have warned that the loss of experienced and skilled nurses who fled the country after the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (EU) led to a “measurable decline in care quality”.
“Brexit has had real life-or-death consequences for patients in our hospitals”
Giuseppe Moscelli
The research, published as an IZA Institute of Labor Economics discussion paper, showed that hospitals with a larger share of EU nurses before the referendum were “more exposed” to a negative labour supply induced by the Brexit vote.
This is because there was a drop in the number of new nurse joiners from the EU to NHS hospitals, as well as an increase in EU nurses terminating their employment in the health service.
Academics looked at data from 131 NHS hospitals in England, including in-hospital mortality rates and unplanned emergency readmissions.
It found that patients admitted to an NHS hospital organisation with “an average exposure to the Brexit referendum shock” experienced a 5.31% increase in the risk of in-hospital death, and 2.28% increase in the risk of unplanned emergency hospital readmission, after June 2016.
This translates to around 1,485 additional in-hospital deaths per year, or 34 extra deaths per hospital, in the three years after the referendum.
Alongside the “staggering drop” in the number of EU nurses joining hospitals following the referendum, the research found that there was a “sharp increase” in the number of non-EU overseas nurses hired by NHS hospitals.
The paper set out that this pool of new non-EU NHS hospital nurses had lower experience or skills, demonstrated by the lower banding they were placed on.
As such, it concluded that this change in the workforce was the “most likely” reason for the increase in mortality and unplanned readmission rates.
Professor Giuseppe Moscelli, professor of economics and lead investigator of the study at the University of Surrey, said: “Brexit has had real life-or-death consequences for patients in our hospitals.
“The evidence we’ve gathered shows that the loss of more experienced or skilled nurses has led to a measurable decline in care quality.”
Professor Moscelli said the research provided “two important take-home messages for taxpayers and policymakers”.
He said: “On the one hand, it underscores the critical role that skilled migrant nurses play within the healthcare system, particularly in emergency care, where the stakes are highest.
“On the other hand, it highlights the considerable reliance of the NHS on foreign nurses and the need to balance this dependence with policies that stimulate the formation and training of a higher number of domestically trained healthcare professionals, to prevent similar quality of hospital service deteriorations in the future.”
The Department of Health and Social Care was contacted for comment.
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