Moderna, Inc is valued at a market capitalization of approximately $13.4 billion. (mRNA) is a biotechnology company that focuses primarily on the discovery and development of messenger RNA (mRNA)-based therapies. Massachusetts MRNA platform Cambridge enables the rapid development of vaccines and treatments for infectious diseases, cancers and rare genetic disorders.
Companies worth more than $10 billion are usually classified as “large caps”, and Moderna fits perfectly with the label. The company has achieved global recognition of Covid-19 vaccines, demonstrating its ability to scale production and efficiently deliver life-saving solutions. Moderna continues to expand its pipeline with promising candidates in regions such as oncology, cardiovascular disease and respiratory infections. Its strong R&D capabilities, strategic partnerships and commitment to cutting-edge science positions it as a leader in the biotech industry.
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Despite its remarkable strength, the biotech company took 79.7% off its two-year high of $170.47 on May 24, 2024. Additionally, it has fallen 17.2% over the past three months, lagging behind the broader Healthcare Select SPDR Fund (XLV) rise of 2.8%.
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In the long term, mRNA stocks have declined by 66.5% over the past 52 weeks, significantly below the marginal loss of XLV. Furthermore, on a YTD basis, mRNA stocks have fallen by 16.7% compared to XLV's 5.4% gain.
To confirm the bearish trend, Moderna has been below the 200-day moving average from August 2024 and below the 50-day moving average from late June 2024, with some variation.
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On March 5th, Moderna's shares revealed that Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel and director Paul Sagan had acquired $6 million worth of common stock in MRNA. Additionally, the company has also secured legal victory in patent disputes against Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and BionTech SE (BNTX), further strengthening investors' trust.
Additionally, on February 14th, MRNA shares rose 3.4% despite losing $2.91 per share after its fourth quarter earnings release. That bottom figure reflects a significant decline of $0.55 per share from earnings in the previous year's fourth quarter. Revenue of $966 million fell 65.6% year-on-year as Covid-19 vaccine sales fell due to changing market conditions and early launches of renewed vaccines in the US, boosting a portion of sales in the third quarter.
However, on the brighter side, revenues exceeded consensus estimates by 2.5%, and the company reduced operating expenses by 21.1% through cost-cutting measures. Additionally, it aims to remove nearly $1 billion in costs by the end of 2025, and aims to secure up to 10 product approvals by 2027, enhancing investor trust.
Moderna's poor performance comes from rivals Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) 60.4% appears even more pronounced when compared to a 60.4% increase over the past 52 weeks, with a slight decrease on a YTD basis.
Given the recent performance of mRNAs is associated with its broad sector, analysts remain cautious about its outlook. The stock has a “hold” consensus rating from 26 analysts that cover it. The average price target of $61.48 suggests a massive premium of 77.6% over current levels.
On the date of publication, Neharika Jain had no position (directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. For more information, see BarChart's disclosure policy.
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