As of 2025, more than half of eligible beneficiaries are registered in the Medicare Advantage (MA) plan, according to the new KFF report.
As MA penetration increases, home health providers are struggling to grow or maintain, and MA growth is expected to continue.
According to the Medicare Payment Advisory Committee (MEDPAC), registration for an MA plan impacts federal spending.
In 2025, per-person payments will rise by 20%, adding $84 billion to federal spending. This is a significant increase from the $18 billion spent in 2015 when about a third of eligible beneficiaries joined the MA plan, according to the report.
Given the trends in registration and spending, lawmakers are focusing on how Medicare compensates private plans, but there is no consensus on the approach or timeline for change. Part of the challenge stems from concerns about how payment adjustments affect the beneficiary's ability to select plans and access supplemental benefits such as dentistry, vision, and hearing compensation.
The proportion of eligible Medicare recipients enrolled in the MA plan has skyrocketed from 19% in 2007 to 54% in 2025. By 2034, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will have 64% of all Medicare beneficiaries registered on the MA plan.
KFF reported that 62% of MA enrollees were in a plan that is generally accessible to all beneficiaries for individual enrollment. In overall MA registration this year, the percentage of individual plans remains stable compared to last year, but its share has declined since 2010, accounting for 71% of all enrollees. This decline is attributed to faster growth in special needs plans, and currently has around 7.3 million Medicare beneficiaries.
Of these 7.3 million people, over 80% are enrolled in plans designed for individuals eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid. However, plans targeting people with certain chronic diseases increased by more than 70% between 2024 and 2025.
Additionally, MA registrations are concentrated on plans run by several parent organizations, according to the report. UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) and Humana (NYSE: HUM) account for 46% of all MA subscribers nationwide. UHG is the largest provider, attracting nearly 505,000 subscribers in 2025, while Elevening Health (NYSE:ELV) has increased by around 250,000. In contrast, Humana registrations fell approximately 297,000 between 2024 and 2025.
