The latest Skills for Care report entitled ‘Size and structure of the adult social care sector and workforce in England’, revealing the return of social care vacancy rates to pre-COVID levels has generated significant response from industry leaders, highlighting both cautious optimism and persistent concerns about the sector’s long-term sustainability.
While acknowledging the positive trajectory, sector chiefs have emphasized that the improvement masks deeper structural challenges that require urgent government intervention.
Oonagh Smyth, Chief Executive Officer at Skills for Care, cautioned against complacency, noting that “while the vacancy rate in social care has reduced, it’s still three times that of the wider economy” and stressed the need for 470,000 additional posts by 2040. Industry leaders have expressed particular concern about the sector’s heavy reliance on international recruitment, with Professor Martin Green OBE of Care England warning that “this rebound has been driven by international recruitment, not by structural reforms”, describing the current approach as unsustainable. The consensus among sector leaders is that while the falling vacancy rate represents progress, it should serve as a catalyst for comprehensive reform rather than a reason for policy complacency, with many calling for fully funded Fair Pay Agreements and long-term workforce investment to address the underlying recruitment and retention challenges facing the domestic workforce.
Nadra Ahmed CBE, Executive Co-Chairman of National Care Association said:
“This report has some stark warning within it for those who are looking at the long-term workforces challenges the sector faces. The reality is if we don’t have a workforce, we cannot deliver care and support to those who need it when they need it. No carers mean we cannot deliver care. Whilst the domestic workforce option is always the better one, if the government doesn’t have a plan to grow it their actions will make it harder for providers to support those who need it. Additionally, it will inevitably hamper our ability to support our NHS colleagues to ensure safe discharges from hospitals when needed. Recognising that our workforce is our greatest strength in the delivery of care and support, we must also acknowledge that it is the greatest weakness. The image of social care continues to a be a barrier in a meaningful career option for those who would choose to follow it.
We hope that NCA and Skills for Care can work closely with the government to ensure that the nuances behind this data are properly understood and addressed, rather than being lost in headline figures. Above all, we must ensure that the people behind these numbers are seen as human beings, not just points on a trend line.’
Kathryn Marsden OBE Chief Executive of SCIE, said:
“The fall in vacancy rate is cause for optimism, but the picture overall is still one of high turnover, persistent recruitment difficulties, and a sector held together by the goodwill of overstretched staff.”
“The system is precariously dependent on overseas workers, who make up a growing proportion of new starters. This overreliance is not a sustainable strategy, and it leaves the entire care system vulnerable to policy changes and political headwinds beyond its control.”
“SCIE welcomes the sector-wide collaboration led by Skills for Care in shaping the Workforce Strategy for Adult Social Care. It provides a strong, shared foundation to tackle urgent challenges around recruitment, retention, and workforce stability. We now call on the government to work with the sector to prioritise and implement key elements of the strategy, particularly around pay, career progression, training, and wellbeing. Achieving parity of esteem with the NHS is not only fair but essential, given the critical role the adult social care workforce will play in enabling the success of the 10-Year Health Plan and ensuring people receive care closer to home.”
“There are reasons to be hopeful. The proposed Fair Pay Agreement has the potential to be a transformative step forward – recognising the skills of care workers, improving their economic security, and creating conditions that encourage people to stay and build their careers in care. High turnover affects care quality and continuity, disrupts relationships, and ultimately harms those who draw on care and support services.”
“But a Fair Pay Agreement must be implemented as part of a broader commitment to workforce reform. It cannot be another isolated policy fix. We must ensure the voices of care workers, providers, and people who draw on care are central to designing a future-proof system.”
Lucinda Allen, Policy Fellow at the Health Foundation, said:
‘Skills for Care’s report shows that challenges recruiting and retaining enough social care workers have eased since peaking in 2021. Workers from outside the UK continue to hold up the care system in England. The number of British workers in social care has steadily declined since Brexit and they now represent just 70.8% of roles compared to 84.6% in 2019/20. Given government measures to reduce immigration, the shrinking domestic workforce raises serious concerns that care providers could struggle to recruit enough workers in the years ahead.”
‘Overseas workers are essential to the UK health and care system but it’s clear that recent international recruitment has not always been ethical. Today’s report shows the care sector has recruited heavily from ‘WHO red list’ countries which face significant shortages of health and care workers. Our recent analysis also highlighted that social care workers from outside the UK face particularly high risks of poverty and exploitation.”
‘Caring for older people and disabled people is vital and rewarding work but has long been underpaid and undervalued. Making jobs in social care more attractive and tackling high levels of poverty among workers requires significant improvements to pay, career progression and employment conditions. It’s vital that the government delivers on its plans for a ‘Fair Pay Agreement’ for social care.’
Nuffield Trust Fellow Camille Oung, said:
“More job vacancies being filled in social care is undoubtedly a thing to celebrate, as it should mean more people receive better support from care services. However, social care is still actively losing homegrown workers. The sector continues to be propped up by international recruitment, but the UK government is now taking multiple measures that kick away that support strut. As well as the specific block on visas for care workers, the wider tightening on immigration is likely to mean there will be fewer migrants on other types of visas who might work in the sector.”
“With these barriers in place, there is a strong case for delivering better terms and conditions for care workers to attract and retain more homegrown staff, but the Employment Rights Bill measures aimed at achieving this are both some way off, and not clearly funded.”
Professor Martin Green OBE, Chief Executive of Care England, said:
“This report reflects progress, but it is progress resting on an increasingly precarious base. It would be wrong to view this as a policy success story. In truth, this rebound has been driven by international recruitment, not by structural reforms to make care a more attractive domestic career. That’s a gamble the Government is now walking away from.”
“We are pulling up the drawbridge just as the sector begins to stabilise. This report makes clear that the domestic workforce continues to decline at the very moment the international recruitment route is being closed off. At a time when we should be reinforcing the foundations of the sector, we’re weakening them. This is not a sustainable path. Without urgent action, today’s progress risks unravelling into tomorrow’s crisis.”
“FPA and ERB are vital steps forward, but they are not a silver bullet -and they won’t ease the pressures providers are facing right now. We need a bridge between the workforce we have and the workforce we need.”
“This report should be recognised as a turning point, not used as a cause for complacency. The sector has shown resilience, but resilience is not the same as sustainability. If Government is serious about delivering quality care for the future, it must back this workforce with action, funding and policy that reflects the scale of the challenge ahead.”
Vic Rayner, CEO of NCF commented: “We should make no mistake that the 2025 Size and Structure report from Skills for Care underlines the need for action to build a resilient social care workforce that is fit for the future.
“On the surface the numbers indicate growth, but beneath the headlines there is a critical story to tell of a sector that is struggling to recruit and retain a sustainable domestic workforce that meets the needs of a growing population. The vacancy rate for adult social care is still three times that of the wider economy. The number of posts filled by people with a British nationality continued to fall this year too, decreasing by 30,000. The size and structure report also highlights that the sector is still likely to need to create and fill another 470,000 posts by 2040 to keep up with the projected growth in the population over the age of 65.
“With a Fair Pay Agreement for adult social care on the horizon, the government has a golden opportunity to truly invest in its workforce. The trends all point to a need to act, demonstrated by the year-on-year shrinkage taking place in our domestic care workforce that will deepen further without urgent action. This picture will only improve if the government takes strong and purposeful action to show care workers they are valued and appreciated – this means fully funding any Fair Pay Agreement for adult social care. Government should also ensure that there is adequate funding in the interim and that commissioning practice is conducive to improving the pay of care workers and attracting more domestic workers.
“Building a resilient workforce fit for the future also means making roles more attractive to the domestic workforce over the long term. The workforce strategy for adult social care developed in collaboration with a wide range of organisations, including the NCF, and led by Skills for Care identifies the workforce needed over the next 15 years and sets out a plan for ensuring the sector has enough of the right people with the right skills. We urge the government to commit resource and energy to work with the sector to see that plan achieved.”
