A record number of 45 million Americans currently have ACA-related insurance. This is an increase of just over 14 million people compared to 2021 and an increase of nearly 33 million people compared to 2014. This has led to a significant increase in demand for outpatient medical services (routine check-ups, preventive care, doctor visits, etc.). , which occurs primarily among low-income households. Despite the ACA's success, President Trump has repeatedly promised to repeal and replace it, but he has distanced himself from such statements in recent days. The previous Trump administration also tried to overturn Obamacare, but failed repeatedly.
In 2019, the Trump administration successfully weakened the ACA by eliminating tax penalties for individuals who did not purchase insurance under the individual mandate. Although it is unlikely that Obamacare will be overhauled under the Trump administration, we believe it is likely that federal subsidies (such as premium tax credits) for Obamacare subscribers will be reduced. Additionally, the Trump administration may reduce advertising spending and shorten enrollment periods, which would likely result in a decline in enrollment. However, many reimbursement risks (i.e., a gradual reduction in covered treatment costs) are not anticipated under President Trump's administration. Harris, by contrast, has vowed to preserve the ACA, expanding federal subsidies for Obamacare policyholders and likely making them permanent.
