Looking back at my 2024 predictions, I see something obvious.
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Every year, I dust off my crystal ball and try to predict what the future holds for the medical industry. In an effort to assess the state of the industry and fine-tune our crystal ball, we decided to revisit our predictions for what we can expect in 2024. What I've discovered is that sometimes I'm wrong and sometimes I'm right. And I'm always amazed at the speed of change in what is arguably one of America's most dynamic industries.
So without further ado, let's take a look at which of my bold predictions came true and which were as off-base as a broken stethoscope.
Prediction for 2024: Presidential candidates will be mostly silent on health care.
In late 2023, I had little reason to believe that health care might become a focus of the next presidential campaign. Unfortunately, I was right. This issue, which affects all Americans, was rarely addressed and should not have been addressed in any substantive way.
As health care becomes a hot topic in politics, the debate will likely be built around what I call the “RFK Jr. effect.” Fringe ideas about health, disease causes, and medicine will become mainstream. Doubts about the work of medical professionals will grow. Of course, until people have real medical needs. Then they will appreciate the science-based healers who make up the backbone of our medical industry and perhaps wonder why we don't discuss them more when we choose our leaders.
Prediction for 2024: Big mergers are back.
Looking back at my initial predictions, I think I was a little off in predicting an increase in “megamergers.” As expected, in 2024 Cigna actually unloaded its Medicare business, selling it to Healthcare Services Corporation for $3.7 billion. Otherwise, we can say that 2024 had a healthy number of mergers, but deal volumes were slightly down compared to 2023.
However, I do not intend to completely retract this prediction. 2024 will see a flurry of hospital mergers, with Ohio's Summa Health being acquired by Health Assurance Transformation for $485 million, Adventist acquiring Sierra Vista and Twin Cities Communities for $550 million, and Risant acquiring There were some notable acquisitions, including the acquisition of Cone Health. These may not be large scale, but they are mergers and continue to herald increased consolidation in the healthcare industry.
Prediction for 2024: Medicare Advantage growth will slow.
In 2024, enrollment in master's programs increased at about the same rate as in 2023. My feeling that criticism of the program would lead to people abandoning it never materialized. I think that's because beneficiaries are discovering that MA plans offer generous benefits and limit out-of-pocket costs, something traditional Medicare doesn't. (Disclosure: I lead SCAN Health Plan, a California-based Medicare Advantage plan with more than 297,000 members.)
Going forward, MA's critics are likely to find their arguments less convincing than ever. Last week, the Biden administration proposed increasing payments to MA plans in 2026. And Dr. Mehmet Oz, the likely new administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), is an unashamed supporter of Medicare Advantage. Look for the program to continue to grow over the next four years and beyond.
Prediction for 2024: Startups will disappear. However, it will be replaced with a new one.
As I predicted, venture funding in the digital health space decreased in 2024. That doesn't mean anyone should ignore digital health. The fundamental problem has been the inability to meaningfully connect to analog medical systems for a long time. But no one should doubt that new startups with realistic valuations and plans to connect seamlessly with the traditional healthcare system will emerge and succeed. With the advent of artificial intelligence, this possibility is even greater. It promises to solve some of the industry's vexing and most intractable problems, and will impact patient care sooner than we expect, even if in small ways at first. may start.
Prediction for 2024: DEI will face a backlash.
Unfortunately, I hit the nail on the head with this one. Recent data shows that demand for chief diversity officers is waning in 2024, and many believe this is due to pushback from conservative state legislatures. Support for DEI initiatives is also unlikely to come from the federal government. A few days after the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was announced, Vivek Ramaswamy posted on X: “Efficient government has no room for DEI bloat. It’s time to stop it.”
However, those promoting stock investing need not despair. Regardless of whether a company chooses to hire a diversity officer, many healthcare organizations continue to view health equity as a worthy goal, and no matter what headwinds they face at the government level, these We should hope that our efforts will bear fruit.
Prediction for 2024: Clinician morale will continue to decline.
We are happy to say that by 2024, the number of physicians reporting burnout will have decreased. Nevertheless, the number remains high and may have declined as a result of the exodus from the profession seen after the coronavirus pandemic. .
The truth is, fully confronting this problem will require a revolution in the management and leadership of most healthcare organizations. But too many organizations are simply managing to carry on with business as usual, delaying fundamental and necessary changes to strategy and operations even as frontline staff continue to suffer.
Prediction for 2024: Ozempic, Munjaro, and other GLP-1s will become more popular.
Undoubtedly, the popularity of these drugs is increasing. Their presence has literally changed the way medical professionals think about obesity as a health problem. Additionally, these drugs are being prescribed for many new conditions. Last April, the FDA approved Wegovy for patients with cardiovascular disease. In an era of misinformation where American society as a whole is disqualifying doctors, we should expect trust and use of these medicines to continue to grow.
Predictions for 2024: Better diagnosis and treatment. I have more questions about payment options.
It seems like new diagnostic tools and medicines are coming online every day. We listen to their stories and celebrate their potential to save lives. The costs of these breakthroughs are less discussed. I believed that implementation of the Medicare Drug Bargaining Provisions of the Inflation Control Act would lead to a more focused discussion of costs. Honestly, I can't say that it happened. No one needs to despair yet. Diseases once considered death sentences are turning into chronic illnesses, and we need to constantly celebrate this fact, even as many of us look for new ways to fund these life-saving treatments. There is.
2024 Forecast: Top Sales
Ken Davis, longtime CEO of Mount Sinai Medical Center, will replace ER Director Brendan Kerr in 2024. Bruce Brousard at Humana will be replaced by industry veteran James Rechtin. Many long-serving healthcare leaders will be leaving their roles as industry headwinds intensify, including regulatory pressures, declining reimbursement rates, and persistent inflation. Guiding an organization through a changing environment will require new approaches, but many long-tenured leaders are reluctant to stick around to make the tough decisions needed to address the impending changes. I probably won't. These personnel changes will create a significant opportunity for the organization to move in a new direction, but will ultimately create instability during what will likely be a year of transition for the entire healthcare sector. It also becomes. In 2025, many household industry names will be introducing new business cards.
Prediction for 2024: At least one “big tech” company will pause (or reboot) its healthcare efforts.
Big tech companies are constantly nibbling around the edges of healthcare. For good reason. Healthcare accounts for almost 20% of GDP, making it a potential growth vector. 2023 was the year of Amazon. We launched Amazon Clinic, completed the acquisition of One Medical, and completed the closure of Amazon Care.
Meanwhile, other large technology companies continue to define their own meaningful healthcare strategies. Look for at least one high-tech company to announce major changes in strategy or personnel. Some critics have accused big tech companies of failing to contain misinformation and creating even more mistrust in the health care industry. Look for select players in the big tech industry, led by people like Google's Karen DeSalvo and Michael Howell and YouTube's Garth Graham, to continue driving solutions that improve the accuracy of health information. .
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Overall, I'd say my predictions weren't too far off. As a man more versed in the healing arts than the dark arts, I feel pretty good about my track record.
What about 2025? I'll tell you in a year. By the way, where did you put that tarot card?
