Proposals to cut health insurance programs in the budget bill, promoted through Congress by President Donald Trump, could put hundreds of thousands of healthcare jobs at risk.
Congressional Republicans are moving forward with a budget plan that will cause nearly 8 million Medicaid people to lose health insurance coverage, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.
Less Medicaid funds and fewer people have health insurance means fewer doctors' office visits, prescription refills and medical procedures. As a result, fewer workers are required to support these types of services. An analysis by George Washington University and the Federal Fund shows that it could lead to about half a million medical jobs in the next decade. The expiration date of the ACA tax subsidy, enacted in 2021, is that an additional 140,000 jobs will be lost, a separate analysis found from George Washington University.
Leighton K, director of the Center for Health Policy Research at George Washington University, who worked on the analysis, said: “We're talking about unemployment and the loss of middle class jobs.”
It will hit one of the most powerful and stable regions in the job market in recent years. Health care accounts for almost half of the jobs added to the US in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to an analysis by S&P Global, roughly half of the 2.2 million jobs added to the economy last year were in the health sector. This helped offset stagnant growth with recruitment and stagnant growth in other sectors of the labour market, such as retail and manufacturing.
“A lot of the things that are pushing forward these positive headline numbers and strengthening the labor market right now is the healthcare sector,” said Allison Srivastaba, economist at job listing site Endquien.com. “It was constant. The healthcare sector was a pretty big mainstay as the rest of the labour market was cooled down.”
Health insurance provisions are part of a wide range of spending bills that have passed the House and are now passing through the Senate. The law that Republicans call the “Big Beautiful Bill Act,” cuts roughly $800 billion from Medicaid, a health insurance program for the poor and disabled, to offset some of the $4 trillion extensions in billing tax cuts for individuals and businesses.
The Senator's version of the bill next week is expected to start voting for Senators next week, further reducing spending on Medicaid by including provisions restricting state tax use on Medicaid and other health care providers.
This reduction would pay certain sacrifices for rural healthcare providers. In rural healthcare providers, patients are more likely to insure them than those in the Metro region through Medicaid. Researchers at Georgetown University found that 40% of children in small and rural towns receive health insurance from Medicaid.
Already, a third of all rural hospitals in the country are at risk of shutting down due to financial difficulties, according to a report this month from the Healthcare Quality and Payments Reform Centre.
Community Health Centers, which employ more than 300,000 workers and receive a portion of federal funding, are also at risk. These centers, which serve at least 32 million, primarily low-income patients, earn around 40% of their revenues from Medicaid.
“Our health centers operate on a thin margin of razors, so any kind of disruption in payments and refunds can have a big impact, even in the short term.” “Around 40% of health centers are in rural America, and in many cases they are the only primary care in that community. We have a medical center in a town of hundreds, and there may not be any other kind of medical network there.”
Without policy changes from Congress, the healthcare sector appeared to be on track for continued growth. And it is largely isolated from wider concerns about tariffs and economic slowdowns. Endally.com's doctor and surgeon job openings are about 90% higher than pre-patient levels, with the list of home health aides increasing by 46% and nurse openings increasing by 16%.
Healthcare jobs on Ziprecruiter.com represent 27% of all active job listings, and 27% of healthcare posts are beginning to fill in more shares of new job postings, according to Ziprecruiter data.
Losing its employment momentum from cutting funding leaves one positive driver behind in the job market.
“The entire labor market is definitely in a stagnant position right now,” Srivastava said. “People don't want to quit their jobs. They're nervous about whether they can find another job. Companies aren't actually trying to hire them. Healthcare is the exception to that.”
