Here we have compiled some of the most commonly used futures techniques along with examples of their use in the medical and healthcare sector.
Prediction is the easiest way to put it into practice thanks to The Good Judgment Project (GJP), a free community site with thousands of well-designed prediction questions, as well as a community of helpful individuals. It is one of 10.
GJP was originally launched as a research initiative by Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore in 2011 as part of a U.S. government-sponsored prediction tournament. The goal was to see how accurately ordinary people can predict world events such as political outcomes, economic trends, and conflicts. The project involved tens of thousands of volunteers who predicted various world events and consistently outperformed professional analysts.
Forecasting in this sense is making predictions based on past and present data. Prediction in medicine means answering specific questions with probabilities. Essentially, we design and ask a particular question and try to provide a 0 to 100% probability (the probability that we think the answer is “yes”) of the question's outcome. Questions include:
Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's official database include more than 1500 AI-based technologies by the end of 2026?
Will the global market for wearable health monitoring devices exceed $50 billion by the end of 2026?
By 2026, will there be lawsuits related to AI-based medical technologies that result in patient deaths in any country?
By performing a so-called environmental scan (Figure 1), you can find studies, reports, news, articles, analysis, and data that support your initial probabilities. It is always recommended that these probabilities be re-evaluated periodically based on new findings.
This process involves scanning sources and analyzing and synthesizing data, trends, and examples identified from the sources that inform decisions and strategies.
The Delphi method was originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting technique that relies on a panel of experts without the negative influence of senior authority over the opinions of other participants. The use of Delphi is widespread throughout health science research and is used to identify priorities, reach consensus on important issues, and establish clinical guidelines11.
This method is particularly useful when analyzing the future of a particular medical field or area. It is employed to predict the role of AI in pathology within the next decade and primary care in 2029. We also consider what digital health competencies should be included in future medical school curricula 12 , 13 , 14 . By iteratively refining expert insights, the Delphi method can also help build consensus on regulatory frameworks for new medical technologies and strategies to address anticipated workforce shortages.
Using fiction to imagine possible futures provides a powerful creative lens through which to explore potential futures, even for participants who have never written a story before . Vision writing fosters empathy by immersing individuals into the lives of people living in future scenarios. Encourage critical thinking through imaginative storytelling and explore the interplay between technological, social and environmental change. This method not only broadens your horizons but also deepens your understanding of the complex dynamics that shape future possibilities.
Write a news headline about runaway medical technology in 2034. Or a 2034 press release about medical advances. Use new technology to write a fictional diary from the perspective of a medical student in 2040. And even writing speeches for politicians in 2032 arguing for and against controversial health policies could contribute to that by making these futures a reality. By engaging with these stories, participants not only envision different scenarios, but also actively shape their understanding of the futures they may one day live in.
The Futures Wheel is designed to explore the possible outcomes of events and trends. His method uses a visual map to lay out both the direct and indirect effects of a single decision (Figure 2). This process begins by identifying core events and issues, such as the rise of remote work or breakthrough treatments for Alzheimer's disease. From there, key results are mapped that represent the direct consequences of the event. These results form the first ring of the wheel. The next step is to explore secondary outcomes (those derived from the primary effect) and create a second, broader ring. Categories such as social, legal, and technological impacts can be applied to improve understanding. The Futures Wheel is best conducted as a group brainstorming activity, systematically identifying risks and opportunities and providing a holistic view of potential futures.
Primary and secondary influences surround a central event, statement, or issue.
This was used to find the key and future impacts of COVID-19 on eight key aspects of the healthcare system15. This paper highlighted disruptions in service delivery, medical education, and prevention and treatment of non-communicable diseases. Physical and mental fatigue of healthcare workers. Reduced intensive care unit capacity. And above all, there is an increasing reliance on telemedicine as healthcare delivery shifts from hospitals to outpatient care.
Trend analysis refers to the general direction or pattern of change, with expected future developments that will have a long-term impact on a particular field. Identify trends, develop future strategies, and gain insight into potential developments through data analysis, expert forecasts, and the study of historical patterns in medicine and healthcare.
This can be extended through horizon scanning, which provides strategic foresight by identifying emerging trends, technologies, and potential challenges in healthcare to predict future developments (Figure 3). This involves collecting and analyzing data from a wide range of sources to discover early signs of significant changes, also known as 'weak signals', and assessing the impact of these changes on health systems and policies. Masu. It also helps identify wildcards, which are low-probability but high-impact events that can cause significant disruption. Typical examples include the COVID-19 pandemic and large-scale language model releases.
This can be used to spot trends, but it can also help identify wildcards, which are weak signs of change that may occur over longer time frames, or disruptive events with low probability and high impact. .
Its role in preparing health systems for the introduction of new medical technologies has been discussed in the literature16.
Finally, scenario analysis has multiple interpretations, one of which is a “fairy tale exercise” (Figure 4). Helps you consider future scenarios by defining core values that need to be maintained throughout scenario development. For example, when thinking about the future of medical education in 2040, the value could be collaboration and partnership between students and professors. Scenarios in which this value flourishes are called utopias (or idealized highly desirable futures), while dystopias (or undesirable futures) result when these values erode.
It helps you create ideal or optimal, actually achievable futures, not just extreme scenarios. Through backcasting, we help you identify the steps you need to take to increase your chances of leading to your desired future.
In this exercise, participants will describe the characteristics of both utopias and dystopias, emphasizing that one person's utopia may be another person's dystopia. Predefined values, in this case the student-professor relationship, serve as a guide for all scenarios. After establishing extreme scenarios, the next step is to define a middle ground, often referred to as an “optimistic realistic scenario” or ideal future. Although this scenario represents a desired outcome, it must be based on actual reality. If it is too similar to a utopian scenario, the characteristics of utopia may not have been defined with sufficient precision.
This process ends with a backcast. Participants work backwards from their desired scenario to the present to identify the regulatory, legal, cultural, technological, and social changes needed to achieve their ideal future. This method encourages active thinking about the steps needed to shape the desired future and ensures that scenarios are anchored in actionable paths rather than merely speculative. This method has been used in the Netherlands to predict future pandemic scenarios17.
These are important questions that medical and healthcare professionals and researchers need to understand how their fields will change, what challenges and potential opportunities may arise, and how These are just a few examples of more than 50 methods you can use to better predict how you will be better prepared for the future. . Table 1 summarizes 10 groups of futures methods and their potential applications in medicine and life sciences.
